The election of Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger to succeed Pope John Paul II apparently was a greater surprise to many Americans than it was to the officials in the Vatican. What impact will the ministry of Pope Benedict XVI have on American Christianity in general and on American Protestantism in particular?
    
From Institutions to Personalities
A beginning point for that speculation could be to reflect on the impact of the quarter century leadership of Pope John Paul II. From this distant observer's perspective, four legacies merit the attention of American Christians.

The first is the public image of large institutions increasingly is a reflection of the personality of the leader of that institution or organization. This is NOT a completely new concept. For thousands of years, that generalization also applied to families, where one parent represented the public image, and for tribes where the tribal chief often was the heart of the public image. It also could be seen in religious movements in which a person represented the belief system of that religion. Examples include Abraham, Moses, Jesus, Mohammed, Luther, Calvin, Wesley, Joseph Smith and Mary Baker Eddy.
    
Perhaps one of the most highly visible examples of this pattern has been that long history of the public image of a nation being reflected in the personality of a military dictatorship. Julius Caesar, Napoleon Bonaparte and Adolph Hitler are examples.
    
Thanks to the combination of his place of birth, his influence in the freeing of Poland from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, his personality, his scholarship and his long tenure, John Paul II gradually became the respected, influential and beloved worldwide public image of the Roman Catholic Church. His final illness, death and funeral reinforced that image.
    
A similar pattern is apparent in American megachurches. The old identification with a denomination that dominated the American religious scene as recently as the 1950s is being replaced with the personality of a long-tenured senior minister as the public image of many of these congregations. Will Pope Benedict XVI become the heart of the public image of the Roman Catholic Church by 2010? Or is he too old to allow time for that to happen? John Paul II was a tough act to follow.
    
From Ambiguity to Certainty
A second characteristic of Pope John Paul's leadership was certainty. As the years rolled by, it gradually became apparent that his belief system was based on certainty, not ambiguity. The Dominus Jesus statement of 2000 declared there "exists a single church of Christ, which subsists in the Catholic Church, governed by the Successor of Peter..."

That is not a statement marked by ambiguity nor an affirmation of participatory democracy. It does resonate favorably, however, with those who prefer certainty over ambiguity in candidates for public office. That also is a characteristic among many adults born after 1970 who are on a self-identified religious pilgrimage, in those seeking a diagnosis for a medical problem, among a fair number of parents of teenagers, and in millions of single adults who prefer a spouse over "a friend with benefits."
    
Was it simply a coincidence that this emphasis on a traditional orthodox Christian belief system by Pope John Paul II and by Cardinal Ratzinger overlapped the Fourth Great Religious Reawakening in America, the rise of evangelicalism and the decline of the Protestant liberalism of the 1950s?
 
Beliefs and Practices
A third component of the legacy received by Pope Benedict XVI, with which he apparently is in complete agreement, is narrowing the chasm that separates beliefs from practices.

For example, should Roman Catholic priests be permitted to marry? That is not a new issue in American Christianity. In American Methodism, for example, the early policy was to discourage preachers from marrying. In 1808, that policy changed from discouragement to toleration as a modest increase in the annual financial allowance was approved for married ministers. In 1816, a recommendation was approved calling for church-owned parsonages for pastors. By the 1950s, American Methodism made it clear to preachers that being married was an asset and bachelorhood was a hardship. Going back several centuries earlier to Europe, at least three popes were elected who were the sons of priests.
    
In the United States, the separation between religious beliefs and practices has been
growing wider for many decades.

Examples include the ordination of women in a growing number of Christian denominations, the candidacy of a divorced and remarried man for the office of President of the United States in 2004, the political support by Christian legislators for state-operated gambling in the South, the erosion of the dress code for both women and men in worship on Sunday morning, women engaged in liturgical dance routines during Sunday morning worship, the widespread practice of artificial birth control, church-sponsored softball teams playing games on Sunday afternoon, that growing number of Protestant clergy who have been divorced and remarried, the increase in both pulpit and altar fellowship among churches of different traditions who would not even have considered discussing that option in 1950, the creation of a new denomination in 1968 by and for homosexuals, and that recent huge migration of "Cradle Catholics" into Protestant congregations.
    
Will Pope Benedict XVI bring to the United States a policy that combines high expectations on both beliefs and practices? Or will he advocate a clear and high degree of commitment for the historic creedal position of the Roman Catholic Church and a relatively tolerant position for diversity on practices such as artificial birth control,
remarriage after divorce or annulment of that earlier marriage, married priests, an expansion of the roles open to women, interchurch communion, a greater role for the laity, and increased accountability to the laity for the actions of the clergy?
    
The first of those two options probably will continue the migration of Americans born, baptized and confirmed in the Roman Catholic Church into Protestant congregations. The second option probably will transform that river into a tiny stream.

Currently the big beneficiaries of this legacy of Pope John Paul II in America are the nondenominational evangelical megachurches, which have been welcoming huge numbers of Cradle Catholics. Will that continue?
    
The demand for freedom and self-determination has been the dominant theme on the political scene all over this planet since the late 1950s. Currently that same theme is shaping the economic, educational, vocational and religious expressions of life all around the world.

What will Rome export to America? One possibility could be to accept the tradeoff that the price tag on clearly defined high expectations on both religious beliefs and human behavior may be a smaller church. Several American Protestant denominations already have demonstrated that the combination of a high level of tolerance for theological pluralism plus disruptive public quarrels over both beliefs and practices is an effective way to reduce the number of constituents.
    
What will Pope Benedict XVI Model for American Christians?
Perhaps the most significant of these four legacies from Pope John Paul II, which also apparently was endorsed by Cardinal Ratzinger, was he led the effort to demonstrate that one way to earn the allegiance of young men born after 1970 is to combine (a) a clearly stated and unambiguous conviction that Jesus Christ is the redeemer of man, the center of the universe and of history, (b) an acceptance of Jesus Christ as Lord and Savior as the
only true way to salvation, (c) an insistence that every facet of ministry be marked by an emphasis on excellence and internal consistency, (d) a long tenured and magnetic personality who serves as both the leader and the public image of the church, (e) high expectations of every individual believer with (f) a system that both challenges and equips believers to be engaged in doing ministry.
    
That six-point strategy already is being implemented in scores of Protestant megachurches all across America.
    
Will Pope Benedict XVI seek to propagate that legacy in the United States? If he does, and if he is successful in earning support for that strategy in the Roman Catholic Church in America, it could produce several interesting outcomes.

One could be a reversal of that Catholic-to-Protestant migration of recent years. A second could be a change in the contest over which Christian bodies will be most successful in reaching, attracting, serving, assimilating, nurturing, discipling, challenging and equipping for ministry the generation of Americans born after 1960. For the past 40 years, that has been a competitive game between the mainline Protestant denominations and the evangelicals.

By 2012, the two dominant players in America could be evangelical Protestants and the followers of Pope Benedict XVI.

Another Scenario?
A completely different scenario for this German-born Pope could include a continued benign neglect of both Europe and the United States while directing resources to Latin America and Africa. Those are the two places on this planet where the Roman Catholic Church has large and growing numbers of members. Perhaps they will be at the top of Pope Benedict XVI's priorities?

For more than four decades, Lyle E. Schaller has served as a parish consultant to hundreds of congregations and scores of denominational agencies. His recent books include From Geography to Affinity, The Ice Cube Is Melting, and A Mainline Turnaround.