Which of these four brief paragraphs is the most informative? Which one provides the most useful description of a long-term trend?   

1. In 2004, the number of people killed in motor vehicle accidents in the United States averaged out to 118 per day, up from a daily average of 97 traffic deaths 50 years earlier in 1954.

2. The number of people killed in motor vehicle accidents in the United States peaked at 56,300 in 1972, up from 38,137 in 1960. That was double the 28,000 killed in 1928, but it has leveled off at approximately 42,600 annually in recent years.

3. The number of traffic deaths in America per 100,00 population peaked at 30.8 per 100,000 residents in 1937, dropped to a low of 17.8 per 100,000 population in 1943, climbed to 26.2 in 1972, and has gradually decreased to about 15 per 100,000 in recent years.

4. The ratio of traffic deaths to the number of vehicle miles driven has plunged from an average of 18 per 100 million vehicle miles driven in 1926 to 11.4 in 1943 to 4.3 in 1972 and to 1.5 per 100 million vehicle miles in 2002.

The source--the various editions of the Statistical Abstract of the United States --is the same for each paragraph.

The first paragraph evokes the feeling, "That's a scary number, and the situation is getting worse!" The second paragraph makes it clear that 1972 was a bad year for traffic fatalities. The third and fourth paragraphs could be used to document the conclusion that, from a long-term perspective, 1972 really was a relatively safe year to be traveling on this nation's streets and highways.

That fourth paragraph also could evoke the question, "How could that ratio of traffic
deaths-to-vehicle miles driven drop by 92 percent since 1926?" One part of the answer is safer streets and highways. The designers of the nation's highways have saved millions of lives. A second part is safer motor vehicles. A third factor has been improved law enforcement. A fourth part is better driver education.

What's the Point?
These introductory paragraphs illustrate the fact there is no neutral or value-free method for reporting on trends or the performance of any organization or institution. That generalization also applies to congregations and to denominational systems in American Christianity.

A common example is represented by Salem Church . This congregation was founded in 1852 as a rural farming community congregation by and for recent immigrants from Germany . Today it is a large exurban church. Last year, the reported confirmed membership dropped from slightly more than 1,300 to 1,193, due in part to the rise in the level of competition from nearby new missions for constituents and to "cleaning the rolls." On the other hand, the average worship attendance increased from 703 to 785, due largely to the influx of adults born after 1970 who are seeking certainty, quality, relevance and choices in their search for a church home, but display limited interest in joining any organization such as lodges, veterans' organizations, service clubs or religious congregations.

Which of those two trends should the finance committee use in explaining the 15 percent increase in projected expenditures for the coming year? The 9 percent decrease in membership? Or the 12 percent increase in average worship attendance?

Two miles to the north is the meeting place of Faith Baptist Church , founded in 1926 to serve the residents of a small village and a largely Swedish constituency. Fifty years later, the annual report revealed an average worship attendance of 135 and an average Sunday school attendance of 126, with 78 in the children and youth division and 48 in the two adult classes. In 1987 the congregation relocated to a five-acre site and constructed new physical facilities. Last year, the combined attendance for the two Sunday morning worship services averaged 334, and the combined attendance in the classes for children and youth in the Sunday school averaged 192. The combined attendance for the three adult classes averaged 83.

When a couple of old-timers read the annual report, they were deeply disturbed. Why do we have so few adults in Sunday school? If we have more than doubled church attendance and the attendance for children and youth in the Sunday school, why haven't we at least doubled adult Sunday school attendance?

One explanation was the need for more adults to staff that growing children's division. A second was the absence of demand for adult classes.

The best explanation, however, was this statement. "Last year was 2004, not 1984. During the past five years, we have launched seven new adult Bible study and prayer groups. One group for men meets at 7:00 every Saturday morning. Another, also for men, meets in an office building that houses the biggest employer in the county at lunch every Tuesday. A third group, for engaged couples, meets here at the church every Thursday evening. A fourth group is for mothers of young children and meets here at the church on Thursday mornings. The fifth group, for married couples, meets here every Tuesday evening. The sixth group is for mature women living alone and meets here at the church every Wednesday morning at 10:00. The seventh group is for teenagers, and they meet here at the church every Wednesday evening. The combined attendance of those seven groups runs between 110 and 130 every week. Add that number to the number of adults teaching in the Sunday school plus three adult classes, and the combined attendance of all our learning groups exceeds our worship attendance by close to 20 percent. The obvious reason is a number of teenagers and adults are involved in both Sunday school and weekday groups."

One moral of that long paragraph is new generations bring new expectations. The demand for adult peer-driven learning experiences now exceeds the demand for teacher-led classes. The past two decades in America have been marked by 45 million deaths while 78 million Americans celebrated their 25th birthday.

The Impact of Consumerism
A second point that is illustrated by Faith Baptist Church is the larger the size of the congregation, the more likely learning opportunities must be spread out during the week to accommodate the schedules of potential constituents.

One cultural trend that has had a tremendous impact on the design of ministry plans by congregational leaders can be stated very simply. Up through the 1940s, Americans were taught to design their lives to accommodate (a) the seasons of the year and (b) the expectations and schedules of institutions. The past half century has been spent helping institutions understand they have two choices. The easy one is to take the road to obsolescence. The alternative is to become more sensitive and responsive to the expectations and convenience of new generations of constituents. That includes offering people a greater range of attractive choices.

That long list of examples includes retail stores, institutions of higher education, medical clinics, manufacturers of motor vehicles, motion picture theaters, hotels, libraries, financial institutions, the recreation and entertainment industries, hospitals, home improvement stores, commercial airlines, pension programs, restaurants, television channels, telephone services, and Christian congregations.

What Is the Context?
One way to report traffic deaths in the United States is simply by year-by-year totals.
A second is to translate those big numbers into daily averages. A third is to present them in the context of an increasing population. A fourth was used earlier to compare the ratio of deaths to the number of vehicle miles driven. A fifth could be by the age or gender of the victim.

For decades, the annual death rate among American males from traffic accidents has been twice that of females. The death rate among children under age five now averages about 4 per 100,000 persons in that age cohort compared to 29 per 100,000 for those age 16 to 24, 23 per 100,000 for those age 80 and over, and 15 per 100,000 for the total American population.

How Do You Report?
This observer is convinced that the average attendance at weekend worship is the most useful single statistical indicator to measure the size of a congregation and to use in reporting the decrease or increase in size. The first question in many congregations is when is that count taken? Before or after the children leave? For purposes of comparability and consistency, the count should include only those who are present for the entire service.

Frequently the Easter attendance represents the current ceiling. If that number is more than 50 percent above the average for the year, someone should ask the "Why?" question. In many states, the October and/or May averages represent the norm. If that applies, include those two months in the detailed reporting.

The number of baptisms is an indicator that often receives a heavy emphasis. That can be misleading. The congregations that specialize in ministries with families with children
at home typically will report more impressive numbers of baptisms than those that specialize in ministries with people born before 1950.

Most congregations include receipts and expenditures in their annual report. A few include an adjustment for inflation. Over a longer timeframe of five years or more, the increases in wages and salaries have exceeded the rate of inflation. Therefore, a more useful frame of reference for reporting on dollar receipts and expenditures could begin with a report on the year just ended followed by a comparison with similar data for five or six or seven years earlier, followed by adjustments for changes in per-capita personal income and other variables.

This approach using a larger context for reporting can be illustrated by the congregation that welcomed a new pastor in late 1999. For the calendar year of 1999, that 48-year-old congregation reported an average worship attendance of 148; dollar receipts from member contributions of $185,072; income from bequests, memorials and other sources of $14,347 that were used for capital expenditures; and a total of 16 new members received.

Six years later, the annual report for 2005 celebrated the increase to an average worship attendance of 203 for 2005; 34 new members received; dollar receipts of $217,644 from member contributions for the operating budget; $31,217 for benevolences, plus another $98,868 in bequests, memorials and designated gifts for capital improvements.

One big change in the reporting system divided expenditures into three budgets--operating, benevolences and capital improvements. Total receipts in 2005 came to
$347,729, up from $199,419 in 1999. One comparison in that annual report for 2005
revealed total receipts averaged out to $32.95 per worshiper per week, up from $25.90 per worshiper per week in 1999. (That helped the couple who dropped two $20 bills into the offering plate every Sunday they were in church understand that was not as generous as they had assumed it to be. The cost of doing church keeps going up!)

Another paragraph pointed out that per-capita personal income for 2005 was estimated
at $33,000, up 18 percent from a national average of $27,933 in 1990 and slightly more than triple the average of $10,134 in 1980. By contrast, the total receipts of $347,729 in 2005 was 74 percent higher than six years earlier. The next paragraph highlighted that the 37 percent increase in average worship attendance and the 27 percent increase in average contributions per worshiper per week. These two changes, plus that 18 percent increase in the national average per-capita personal income, explained the 74 percent increase in total receipts.

The final paragraph added the explanation, "For those who wonder why those additional dollars were needed, that increase was required to attract, serve and house that 37 percent increase in attendance. One cause for celebration is we paid off the final installation on the loan we took out in 2001 to pay for the construction of the new office wing and the expansion of our parking lot. It costs more to grow than to remain on a plateau in size."

For more than four decades, Lyle E. Schaller has served as a parish consultant to hundreds of congregations and scores of denominational agencies. His recent books include From Geography to Affinity , The Ice Cube Is Melting, and A Mainline Turnaround .

Copyright © 2005 Lyle Schaller