Nearly 100 years ago, an Italian businessman turned economist and sociologist, Vilfredo Pareto, publicized what has become known as the 80-20 rule. From his observations of economic and social trends, Pareto concluded that a normal statistical distribution pattern followed an 80-20 ratio.

Approximately 80 percent of the time a person spends reading the daily newspaper focuses on 20 percent of the content. Approximately 80 percent of the prescription drugs sold go to fill 20 percent of the prescriptions. Large banks report 80 percent of their deposits come from 20 percent of their depositors. Several major league sports teams report that 80 percent of the dollars paid out in players' salaries go to 20 percent of the players. Close to 80 percent of the dollars received from the United States government in personal income taxes come from 20 percent of the taxpayers.

How does the 80-20 rule apply to your church? One frequently cited estimate is that 80 percent of the time contributed by volunteers in ministry comes from 20 percent of the members. Another is that 80 percent of the time the minister devotes to pastoral care is spent on 20 percent of the constituency. Both of those obviously are estimates of highly subjective data.

Our research on congregational life in American Protestantism suggests a more common ratio that can be described as the 70-30 rule. Give or take a percentage point or two on either side of the equation, American Protestant congregations averaging more than 125 at worship usually report that 30 percent of their households contribute 70 percent of the dollars received from living donors. The 80-20 ratio is more common in congregations averaging fewer than 125 at worship.

A variety of surveys and polls suggest that slightly more than 30 percent of all Americans age 18 and older worship with a religious congregation on the typical weekend, while 70 percent are engaged in other activities. Slightly more than 30 percent of all American Christians have switched their religious affiliation from one tradition to another at least once, while 70 percent continue in their first tradition. Recent surveys also indicate that approximately 30 percent of all high school students read the Bible while alone on a daily schedule.

Give or take one or two or three percentage points on either side of the equation, 30 percent of the congregations affiliated with an American Protestant denomination that asks congregations to report their average worship attendance account for 70 percent of the total attendance. In the Episcopal Church USA, for example, 29 percent of the congregations report an average worship attendance of 125 or more and account for 68 percent of the worshipers on the typical weekend. In the Assemblies of God, the smallest 71 percent include 27 percent of the worshipers. In the United Methodist Church, 70 percent average fewer than 97 at worship and include 33 percent of the worshipers. In the Southern Baptist Convention, the ratio is exactly 70-30.

Several American Protestant denominations rely on financial contributions from congregations to finance a large share of the annual budgets of regional judicatories and national agencies. That process may include a recommendation on the "fair share" to be paid by each congregation. Typically, 70 percent contribute at least 100 percent of that "fair share," while 30 percent contribute less than 100 percent of that allocated amount. In the United Methodist Church, 10 percent of the congregations contribute one-half of the dollars actually received.

There Are Exceptions!
Another perspective on useful ratios for congregational self-evaluation begins with the fact that Protestant congregations--like teenagers, single family homes, grocery stores, universities, farms, pickup trucks, professional football players and waistlines--are bigger than they were 50 years ago.

Where do we find 80 percent of the Protestant worshipers on the typical weekend? Roughly speaking, in about 40 percent of the Protestant congregations in your community. Two out of five congregations usually account for 75 to 85 percent of those attending worship on the typical weekend. If we shift to a denominational focus, in a recent year, the largest 40 percent of the congregations in the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America accounted for three-quarters of the total worship attendance for that denomination. In the Episcopal Church USA, 40 percent accounted for 76 percent, the same ratio as the Evangelical Covenant Church. In the Assemblies of God, 40 percent accounted for 80 percent, while in the Evangelical Presbyterian Church, 40 percent accounted for 83 percent of the church attendees. In other words, that 70-30 ratio described earlier is similar to the 80-20 rule. Moving 10 percentage points from one side of the equation to the other side produces a similar pattern on this distribution.

On the other hand, if we focus on American Protestant congregations that have been
meeting at the same address for at least a decade, and if we use average worship attendance to measure size, the data produce a 60-40 ratio. Approximately 60 percent either have been on a plateau in size over the past five years or have experienced a decrease in attendance during their recent past.

Defining High Expectations
One of the unresolved issues in the Church Growth Movement has been over the distinctive characteristics of the numerically growing congregations in American
Protestantism. One thesis is they tend to be found in disproportionately large numbers from among congregations founded after 1960. That leads to the conclusion that the No. 1 component of a denominational strategy to reverse numerical decline should be a high priority on planting new missions. The Assemblies of God is a frequently cited model for that approach.

Another explanation is a disproportionately large number of today's megachurches
either (a) do not carry any denominational affiliation or (b) if they do, that affiliation is
given very low visibility. The conclusion is denominational affiliation may have been an asset in reaching adults born in America before 1930, but it is a barrier if the goal is to reach people born after 1960.

A third perspective was offered back in 1977 by Dean M. Kelly in Why Conservative Churches Are Growing. That title is at least somewhat misleading. The theme of the book really is that the numerically growing congregations of that era tended to come in disproportionately large numbers from among those churches that (a) focused on addressing the religious and spiritual concerns of people rather than on social or political issues and (b) projected high expectations of potential constituents. People seeking to become members were expected to take their religious convictions seriously, to want to advance from simply being believers to becoming fully devoted followers of Jesus Christ and to model a deep Christian commitment in their behavior.

While many of these congregations were and are in that theological category described as "conservative," most of the theologically conservative congregations of the 1970s and 1980s were not reporting significant numerical growth. The appropriate word was not conservative; it was what Kelly called the "strict churches." They projected high expectations of anyone seeking to become a member or to continue as a full member. They were both clear and strict on defining and enforcing these high expectations.

A quarter of a century later that definition has been changed from "strict" to "high
expectation." Today, one statistical yardstick used to describe these high-expectation congregations is their average worship attendance exceeds their resident membership. It is not uncommon today, for example, for a congregation averaging more than 800 at worship to report fewer than 300 members.

In broad general terms, those congregations that project very high expectations of
anyone seeking to become a member usually report their average worship attendance exceeds 100 percent of their membership. "Everyone is welcome to come worship with us, but the threshold into membership is relatively high." A common expectation is a person is eligible to participate in a weekly orientation class for potential future members that extends more than 30 to 50 weeks after that individual has been a regular participant in the weekly worship of God for at least a year.

After completing the class, that person may be recommended as a candidate for
membership. That leads to a high threshold that may include (a) a commitment to
weekly participation in the corporate worship of God, (b) active participation in a
continuing small growth group for at least a year, (c) a commitment to become a tither and to return at least one-half of that tithe to the Lord via this congregation's treasury, (d) completing the process for identifying one's gifts for ministry, (e) enrollment in a class designed to equip that person to use those gifts as a volunteer in ministry in this congregation, and (f) approval of the candidate's request for membership following an interview with three to five lay elders.

In what can be described as congregations projecting more modest expectations of
candidates for membership, that ratio of worship attendance-to-membership usually ranges between 70 and 90 percent. In low-expectation churches, that ratio usually is below 50 percent in the typical year.

The Land-People Ratio
A half dozen changes on the American scene during the past half century have transformed the criteria used in another facet of church planning. 

The most highly visible of these six changes has been the replacement of small neighborhood institutions (grocery stores, motion picture theaters, medical offices, post offices, hardware stores, et al.) by large regional institutions. The regional megachurch is becoming the successor to the small neighborhood congregation.

A second has been the big yellow bus, which has replaced the bicycle as a means of transporting teenagers to high school.

A third is that new entitlement called a vacant parking space at the end of the journey.

A fourth has been the erosion of denominational loyalties as a decisive criterion by Christians shopping for a new church home.

A fifth is that thus far in the 21 st Century, the number of new detached single-family homes constructed with a three-car garage has exceeded the number built with a one-car detached garage.

A sixth is the median family income in the United States, after discounting the value of a dollar for the impact of inflation, has more than doubled since 1955. 

One consequence is a change in the ratios used as guidelines in church planting. In 1955, for example, three acres was seen as somewhere between adequate and generous in choosing a site for a new congregation expected to plateau with an average worship attendance in the 300-to-500 range. By 1980, that ratio had changed to at least six or seven acres for a new mission designed to average 500 at worship. Today, sites for new missions are more likely to be in the 12-to-15 acre size or larger. Congregations that have been meeting at the same address since before 1980 and are now forced to relocate often purchase a site in the 40-to-200 acre range as they design their 20-year plan.

The changing social, economic and religious scene in America brings new ratios that can serve as helpful guidelines. Which ones do you use in your congregation?

For more than four decades, Lyle E. Schaller has served as a parish consultant to hundreds of congregations and scores of denominational agencies. His recent books include From Geography to Affinity and The Ice Cube Is Melting.The author's newest book, A Mainline Turnaround, will be published by Abingdon Press in May 2005.